You can lose what you put in
An event contract pays $1 if its event happens and nothing if it does not. Every contract you buy can expire worthless, so you can lose the full amount you paid for it. Fees are charged on top, and they are charged whether you win or lose. A run of losing 15-minute windows can happen quickly.
Past results do not predict future results
The strategies we publish were tested against a bar set before their results came in, and most of them failed. A strategy that passed can still lose money later, because markets change, other traders adapt, and a sample that looked strong can be luck. Paper results use modelled fills that real orders may not get.
Paper, replay and backtest results are hypothetical
Most figures we publish come from paper trading, from replaying recorded order books, or from backtests, not from real orders. Each one sits next to the number of trials behind it, and next to this statement, which a CFTC rule (17 CFR 4.41(b)(1)(i)) prescribes for simulated or hypothetical performance:
These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.
How these contracts settle
The crypto contracts we study settle on an average of the reference price over the final 60 seconds, not the last trade. If the exchange’s data source fails, every strike can settle to No, which means a loss on every YES position at once, across every series. How settlement works and what an outage does explain both.
Automated trading adds its own risks
We do not offer automated trading to customers. These risks apply to our own trading service, and to any automated trading you run yourself.
- Orders can be placed late, fill partly, fill at a worse price, or not be placed at all, because of the software, the exchange, or the networks between them.
- Software can be wrong. Limits and checks reduce the damage a fault can do; they cannot rule it out.
- Turning a program off stops new orders. It does not close positions you already hold; they settle on their own or you close them on the exchange.
- An API key that can trade your account should be made for one program only, and deleted when you stop.
Signals are a record, not advice
Signals show what our live strategy did. By the time you see one the price may have moved, and the strategy may exit or lose. They are not a recommendation to trade and are not tailored to you.
Who we are, and who we are not
15 Minute Markets is independent and is not affiliated with, endorsed by, or sponsored by Kalshi or Polymarket. We are not a broker, an exchange or a registered investment adviser, and nothing on this site is investment advice. Trade only money you can afford to lose. See the terms for the full agreement.