Terms of service

1. Agreement

These terms are an agreement between you and PromptReports LLC (“15 Minute Markets”, “we”, “us”) for the use of 15minutemarkets.com and its services: the education pages, research dashboards and studies, the Research, Team, Institutional and Data plans, the Ask desk, the Rulebook journal, our data API, signed downloads, webhooks and the MCP server. By creating an account or using the site you accept these terms and the privacy policy. We record which version of these terms you accepted and when (this draft is version 2026-10-18-draft).

2. Eligibility

You must be at least 18, able to form a binding contract, and not barred from using the service by any law that applies to you. You confirm that you are 18 or older when you request an invite and again when you create an account. If you trade, you are responsible for knowing whether Kalshi, Polymarket US and the laws where you live permit you to trade the contracts involved.

3. Independence from Kalshi and Polymarket

15 Minute Markets is independent and is not affiliated with, endorsed by, or sponsored by Kalshi or Polymarket. Polymarket US is operated by QCX, a CFTC-designated contract market. Kalshi is a trademark of its owner. We are not a broker, an exchange, a futures commission merchant or a registered adviser. Kalshi does not review, approve or stand behind anything on this site.

4. Not investment advice

Everything we publish, including strategy results, dashboards and signals, is educational research about how these markets behave. It is not investment, financial, legal or tax advice, and it is not a recommendation to buy or sell any contract. It is general, not tailored to you. You decide whether to trade, and on what terms.

5. No guarantee, and the risk of loss

Event contracts are risky. You can lose the full amount you pay for each contract. Past results, whether live or paper, do not predict future results, and a strategy that passed its tests can lose money afterwards. A data outage at the exchange can settle every strike to No. Orders can fail, fill partly, fill at worse prices or be delayed by our service, by Kalshi, or by the networks between us. We make no promise of any profit or of any level of performance. Read the risk disclosures before you trade.

6. Your exchange accounts are yours

Your Kalshi account and your Polymarket US account each belong to you and are governed by that exchange’s own terms. They are two separate accounts. We do not move money between them.

You are responsible for your exchange accounts: their funds, positions, taxes, and compliance with each exchange’s member agreement, rules and API terms. We never place, change or cancel an order on your account. If you connect a key for the Rulebook journal (section 19), make it a key used for nothing else; you can revoke it at any time by disconnecting it on your journal page or deleting it at the exchange.

7. No automated trading for customers

We do not trade for you. No plan includes automated trading, and we do not offer tools that place orders on your exchange account. Strategy pages, signals and studies describe what our own research and our own account did; acting on them is your decision, made on the exchange yourself.

8. Suspension and termination

We may suspend or close an account, or switch off any feature for one account or for everyone, at any time and without notice, including when we suspect misuse, a security problem, a legal or regulatory concern, or a fault in the service. We will try to tell you why unless the law or security prevents it. You may close your account at any time from your data page.

9. Fees, renewals and refunds

The Research plan costs $500 a year, the Team plan $1,500 a year, the Institutional plan $5,000 a year and the Data plan $15,000 a year, billed yearly in US dollars plus any tax. We sell a plan only while it is on our pricing page. An invite may carry a discount off the first year, which Stripe’s checkout shows before you pay. Stripe processes payment. Subscriptions renew automatically at the end of each period until you cancel. You can cancel, switch plans or update your card at any time in the billing portal linked from your account; a cancellation takes effect at the end of the period already paid, and a plan switch is prorated by Stripe. We do not refund partial periods unless the law requires it. If a payment fails your plan continues while Stripe retries, then ends. We may change prices with at least 30 days’ notice before your next renewal. Each exchange’s own trading fees are separate and are charged by that exchange. Your own model provider bills you for the Ask desk’s model use (section 18).

10. Acceptable use

Do not share your account, attack or probe the site, scrape it in bulk, resell our research or signals, or use the service to break any law or any exchange rule. Research and signals are for your own use.

11. Accuracy and availability

We check what we publish against contract terms and real fills, but exchanges change their rules and fees, and data can be late or wrong. The exchange’s own rulebook and fee schedule take precedence over anything written here. The service may be unavailable or interrupted, including during market hours.

12. Disclaimer

The service is provided “as is” and “as available”, without warranties of any kind, express or implied, including merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, accuracy and non-infringement, to the fullest extent the law allows.

13. Limitation of liability

To the fullest extent the law allows, we are not liable for any trading losses, lost profits, or indirect, incidental, special, consequential or punitive damages, however caused, including by delays, failed or mistaken orders, outages, or data errors, even if we were told they were possible. Our total liability for all claims relating to the service is limited to the amount you paid us in the three months before the claim arose. Some jurisdictions do not allow some of these limits, so they may not all apply to you.

14. Indemnity

You will defend and hold us harmless from claims, losses and costs (including reasonable legal fees) arising from your breach of these terms, your breach of Kalshi’s terms, your trading, or your violation of any law or anyone’s rights.

15. Governing law and disputes

These terms are governed by the laws of the State of Illinois and applicable US federal law, without regard to conflict of laws rules. [ARBITRATION CLAUSE PLACEHOLDER: counsel to decide whether disputes go to binding individual arbitration (and under which rules and provider), whether a class action waiver and an opt-out window apply, and which small-claims exception is kept.] Any claim not subject to arbitration will be brought in the state or federal courts located in Illinois.

16. Changes to these terms

We may change these terms. We will post the new version here with a new date and, for material changes, tell you by email or on the site at least 14 days before they take effect. Continuing to use the service after that means you accept them.

17. Institutional licence

Draft pending legal review, like the rest of these terms. This section applies only to an account on the Institutional plan or the Data plan, which carries the same licence. The Research and Team plans carry no licence.

Internal use. We license the figure tables, the full study reports and the early-access studies to the firm named on the account, for use inside that firm: its employees may read them, download them and use them in the firm’s own internal work. Each download names the firm and the licence.

No redistribution. The licence does not allow publishing, selling, sharing or passing the tables or reports, in whole or in part, to anyone outside the firm, including clients, investors and affiliates, without our written permission. Quoting a figure in internal work is fine; reproducing a table outside the firm is not.

One firm. A licence covers one firm, the legal entity named on the account. Another firm, a fund under separate management or a parent or subsidiary needs its own licence.

Quarterly briefing. The plan includes one briefing call each calendar quarter with our analyst, booked from your account page. A call not booked in its quarter does not carry over. The call is research, not investment advice, on the same terms as everything else we publish.

18. The Ask desk and model output

Draft pending legal review. The Ask desk answers questions about the site and your own account with a language model. It runs on a model key you save (Anthropic or OpenAI). Your provider bills you for that use under its own terms, and the daily cap you set is our limit on it, not your provider’s. The public “Ask the lab” desk runs on our own key.

Model output can be wrong. Answers, drafted study requests and proposed changes are written by a model, and we label them “Model output”. Text a person checked before we showed it is labelled “Written by a model, checked by a person”. The desk reads figures from our own tools and flags a figure it cannot match, but it can still misread, leave things out or state something false. Check a figure against its page before you rely on it. Model output is not investment advice, and the desk never places an order.

Changes need you. The desk can draft a change to your account, such as a setting. Nothing changes until you confirm it, and some changes also need your two-factor code.

What you send. Your questions, and what our tools return for them, go to your model provider to write each answer. Do not put other people’s personal details in a question. You may not use the desk to get around these terms, to extract our research in bulk, or to probe the service.

19. The Rulebook journal

Draft pending legal review. Rulebook lets you write your own trading rules, check an order you plan against them before you place it yourself, and keep a journal of your own fills and settlements. If you connect an exchange key, our service uses it only to read your fills and settlements, then works out fees and results.

Rulebook never places, blocks or cancels an order. A check compares what you propose with the rules you wrote; going ahead past a failed check is your choice, and we record the reason you give. Journal figures are as accurate as the exchange’s records and our reading of them, and the exchange’s own statements take precedence. The morning and evening emails are optional, and each carries a link that turns it off.

20. API keys and the MCP server

Draft pending legal review. An account on the Institutional or Data plan can make API keys for our derived-data API: up to 10 live keys on Institutional, and up to 25 on Data. A key is shown once; we keep only a one-way hash of it. Each key names the series it may read and carries per-minute and daily limits. We log every request (the key, the time, the route, the series, the status and the size), and we use that log to apply the limits, to show you your usage and to look into misuse.

You are responsible for every request made with your keys and for keeping them secret. Revoke a key at once on your API keys page if it may have leaked. The licence in section 17 covers what the API returns: use inside your firm, no redistribution.

Our MCP server at /mcp lets an AI agent you authorise read the same research for you, through an OAuth grant you approve. For now it is open only to our own admins, for testing; every other account is refused until we open it. Every grant needs two-factor sign-in on your account. If you turn two-factor off, we revoke your grants and your agents stop; to use one again, turn two-factor back on and connect it again. You can see and revoke each grant from your account, an agent acting under a grant is bound by these terms as you are, and we may suspend a client or a grant that breaks its limits or these terms.

No venue prices. An answer from the MCP server or the API that names a market or a series carries links to it on its venue (Kalshi, Polymarket US or Polymarket), and no prices, quotes or order books from that venue. For a live price, follow the link to the venue.

21. Venue data

Draft pending legal review. What we publish is derived research: statistics, figures and findings we compute from market data. We do not sell or pass on raw exchange data, such as order books, trades or price feeds, and nothing on the site, in a download or through the API takes the place of an exchange’s own data service. Our data licences from the exchanges are pending, and until they are in place some pages that show exchange prices stay closed. You may not use our service to rebuild raw exchange data or to pass it on.

22. Accessibility

We want the site to work for everyone. Our accessibility statement says what we test and how to tell us about a barrier.

23. The Team plan

Draft pending legal review. The Team plan costs $1,500 a year and covers up to 5 seats, the buyer’s own included. Selling it is switched off at present. The buyer starts an organisation from their account and invites people to it. Each person who joins holds a seat, with everything in the Research plan, for as long as the buyer’s subscription runs. The seats share one daily allowance for agents. When the subscription ends or changes to another plan, every seat ends with it. A member who pays for a plan of their own keeps it and does not use a seat.

The buyer is responsible for who holds a seat and for each seat’s use of the service. Each seat is for one named person; a seat may not be shared. The Team plan carries no licence for use inside a firm: the licence in section 17 comes only with the Institutional and Data plans.

24. The Data plan

Draft pending legal review. The Data plan costs $15,000 a year. Selling it is switched on. It includes everything in the Institutional plan, including the licence in section 17, and the data API at higher limits: up to 25 API keys, each with up to 100,000 requests a day, and the daily Parquet files (section 25). The licence covers what the keys and the files return, as it covers the figure tables: use inside the named firm, no redistribution.

25. Signed downloads and webhooks

Draft pending legal review. Both are for accounts on the Institutional or Data plan.

Signed downloads. This is switched on. An API key can ask for a list of the daily Parquet files it may read, each with a signed link. A link works without the key until it expires, at most 7 days after it was made, so keep links as secret as the key. Each download is checked against the key again, stops working once the key is revoked or the plan ends, and counts as one request against the key’s limits. The files hold derived data only, under the licence in section 17.

Webhooks. This is switched on. You can register up to 5 https addresses and choose which events from our settlement audit each one receives. We sign each delivery so you can check it came from us. We retry a failed delivery 6 times over about 21 hours, switch an endpoint off after 30 failures in a row until you turn it back on, and stop sending to an endpoint that answers 410. Deliveries can arrive late, twice or out of order; check the event id. A webhook is a notice, not the record: the API and the settlement audit pages are.

26. Market integrity evidence

Draft pending legal review. We study whether markets behave fairly. When our research finds a pattern that may be market abuse, our admins may keep the evidence in Evidence Rooms, an outside service that stores each file amend-only and logs every read, and may share it with outside counsel or a regulator. Sending evidence there is switched off at present. The evidence names exchange accounts by account handles only, never by a person’s name or email address. Neither Evidence Rooms nor this site files anything with the CFTC.

27. Commissioned studies

Draft pending legal review, like the rest of these terms. This section applies only to a study you commission from us.

The agreement. Each study is agreed in a written quote or statement of work that names the question, the size, the deliverables, the price and the turnaround. You accept it by replying in writing or by signing it.

Payment. Half the price is due when you accept and half on delivery, each by invoice, payable within 14 days. A retainer is billed monthly in advance, and either side may end it with 30 days’ written notice. Work starts when the first payment arrives.

Publication. PromptReports LLC may publish a study’s findings 90 days after delivery, unless you paid for a private study. We never publish your name without your written permission. The founding-client rate is offered in exchange for that permission, or for an honest review, whatever it says. The rate never depends on what a review says, and any review we show notes the discount.

Ownership. You get a perpetual licence to use the deliverables inside your own firm. PromptReports LLC keeps ownership of the method, the code, the data and the findings. We do not deliver raw exchange data.

Not advice. A study describes how markets behaved in the past. It is not investment, trading, legal or tax advice, and past results do not predict future ones.

Liability. Our total liability for a study is limited to the fees you paid for that study.

Cancellation. Either side may cancel a study before delivery. You then pay for the work done up to that point, and once work has started the first half of the price is not refunded.

28. General

If a part of these terms is unenforceable, the rest still applies. Our not enforcing a term is not a waiver. You may not transfer these terms; we may transfer them with the business. These terms, the privacy policy and the risk disclosures are the whole agreement between us about the service.

29. Contact

PromptReports LLC, 210 Molly Court, O’Fallon, IL 62269. Email support@15minutemarkets.com.