For portfolio managers and advisers
We do not tell you what to buy, sell or hedge. We record what Kalshi, Polymarket US and global Polymarket priced, and measure how that compared with what happened.
For CPI, Fed, payrolls and GDP markets, priced against the outcome, by horizon and venue.
Sample: Kalshi economics markets, 6 h before the close: Brier 0.067 over 1,597 contracts in 641 events, as of 2026-11-13.
Research plan · the count behind every figureRates, Treasury, gold, crypto and index markets at one minute to four hours after each release, with which venue moved first.
Sample: CPI: 3 releases measured since 2026-09-11, across 8 linked market families, as of 2026-11-12.
Research planThe past gap between a Kalshi BTC strike ladder and a Deribit spread over the same window, with dates and counts. A measured series, not sizing.
Sample: 3,478 readings in October 2026 · 8 trials
Research planMatched markets across venues, graded A to D, and every pair that settled apart, with the clause that caused it.
Sample: October 2026: 46 of 5,539 settled pairs paid differently.
Free monthly reportNo recommendations to buy, sell, size or hedge, and no mapping of your holdings to markets. Those wait on our counsel's answer on adviser rules.
Every result shows how many tests stood behind it. Past figures say what happened, not what will.
All four measurements, the API, and citable figures for your notes.
Request an invite15 Minute Markets is independent and is not affiliated with, endorsed by, or sponsored by Kalshi or Polymarket. Research, not investment advice.