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Market Records / Crypto / Bitcoin 15-minute / Kalshi
Bitcoin above $67,250 at 14:15 ET?
rec:btc-15m/kalshi/KXBTC15M-26OCT241415-T67250 · v1 · hash 7c1e…a90 · as of 14:09:30 ET
0.62YES ask nowbook · 14:09:30
$1.6492Taker fee, 100 contracts at 0.62fees.py · quadratic
0.6365Break-even probability after feefees.py
$0Maker fee on this seriesfee_type quadratic
How it settles Rule unchanged since listing
“If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' Bitcoin Real-Time Index (BRTI) prior to 2:15 PM ET is above 67,250.00, then the market resolves to Yes.”
- Source
- CF Benchmarks BRTI, 60-second simple average
- Window
- 14:14:00 to 14:15:00 ET
- If the source is out
- Resolves to No. Every YES strike in the series carries this tail.
Twins on other venues
| Venue | Market | Grade | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket US | BTC up or down, 14:15 ET, 67,250 | A | Same index, same 60-second window. 412 of 412 settled alike. |
| Global Polymarket | Bitcoin above 67,250 at 2:15 PM ET | C | Settles on one exchange's 1-minute candle close, not the BRTI average. |
The record
- Series settlements
- 23,827 of 23,828 reproduced from the rule
- The one miss
- The ledger entry for that window
- Calibration
- At 6 minutes to close, prices of 0.60 to 0.65 settled YES 63.1% of the time (n = 4,912)
The trading Not graded
- Index push
- False-alarm rate not yet measured
- Cross-venue echo
- False-alarm rate not yet measured
- Wash prints
- False-alarm rate not yet measured
A detector is graded once its false-alarm rate is measured on real tape against a control.
integrity_cases · base-rate atlas · sample valuesOutage exposure
BRTI was unavailable in 3 windows in the last 90 days. Each resolved every strike to No.
outage_history · sample valuesRule text, verbatim
“If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' Bitcoin Real-Time Index (BRTI) prior to 2:15 PM ET is above 67,250.00, then the market resolves to Yes. If the data needed to settle is unavailable, the market resolves to No.”
- Settlement source
- CF Benchmarks BRTI
- Averaging
- Simple, 60 one-second values
- Strike
- Strictly above 67,250.00
- Fee type
- quadratic: taker ceil(0.07 × count × p × (1 − p)), maker zero
Change history
No change to this market's rule since listing. The series template last changed on 2026-09-02:
Before
“…the last value of the BRTI…”
“…the last value of the BRTI…”
After
“…the simple average of the sixty seconds of the BRTI…”
“…the simple average of the sixty seconds of the BRTI…”
Family: Bitcoin 15-minute, strike 67,250, 14:15 ET
| Venue | Source and window | Tie rule | Past settlements alike | Grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi (this record) | BRTI, 60 s average | Strictly above | n/a | n/a |
| Polymarket US | BRTI, 60 s average | Strictly above | 412 of 412 | A |
| Global Polymarket | One exchange, 1-minute candle close | Above or equal | 371 of 389 | C |
Kalshi
“simple average of the sixty seconds of … BRTI prior to 2:15 PM ET is above 67,250.00”
“simple average of the sixty seconds of … BRTI prior to 2:15 PM ET is above 67,250.00”
Global Polymarket
“the close of the 1-minute candle … is greater than or equal to 67,250”
“the close of the 1-minute candle … is greater than or equal to 67,250”
Settlement audit for the series
- Windows settled
- 23,828
- Reproduced from the rule
- 23,827
- Differed
- 1, with its ledger entry and explanation
Calibration at this horizon
Price against how often YES settled, 6 minutes to close, crypto 15-minute family, Kalshi. Diagonal is perfect calibration.
family_calibration · sample curveDetectors on this market Not graded
| Detector | What it looks for | Status | False-alarm rate |
|---|---|---|---|
| Index push | BRTI constituents pushed inside the averaging window | Not graded | Not yet measured |
| Cross-venue echo | A flagged global Polymarket pattern, then same-minute prints here | Not graded | Not yet measured |
| Ahead of news | Price moves before the first public report | Not graded | Not yet measured |
| Wash prints | Self-matching print patterns | Not graded | Not yet measured |
One clock, three venues
- Kalshi YES ask 0.55 to 0.60 over 40 seconds
- Polymarket US twin moves 0.55 to 0.59
- Global Polymarket twin moves 0.54 to 0.58
- First public report: exchange listing headline on an agency feed
- Record refreshed, no flags